Sinema Deeply Unpopular and Can’t Win, But She’s Pulling Votes from Gallego
PHOENIX – Today, leaders from Progress Arizona, LUCHA, and Replace Sinema PAC shared new polling on the 2024 Arizona Senate race.
The polling was conducted by Jill Normington of Normington Petts among 800 likely voters in Arizona who are likely to vote in the November 2024 general election. The poll was conducted from January 18-23, 2023. The sampling error for this survey is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Key takeaways:
- Sinema deeply unpopular, Gallego popular: Senator Kyrsten Sinema begins the 2024 cycle as an unpopular political figure. Voters have negative impressions of each of the potential U.S. Senate candidates we tested, with the exception of Congressman Ruben Gallego.
- Put another way: Of Sinema, Gallego, Doug Ducey, and Kari Lake, only Ruben Gallego has a net positive favorability.
- Gallego is a strong candidate. Not only does the base like him, but his statewide name identification is impressive at 51% given that he represents just 11% of the state.
- Gallego would have mopped the floor with Sinema in a primary and Sinema is experienced enough to know it. Her party switch is a cynical attempt at political survival, not some virtuous endeavor to be more in touch with Arizonans.
- Ruben Gallego is the frontrunner in the Arizona Senate race.
- Gallego leads a two-way race for Senate versus Republican Kari Lake: Gallego 50% to Lake 45%.
- He is in a tie with Lake (actually .4 points higher) if Sinema is on the ballot – Gallego 36 – Lake 36 – Sinema 24.
- If the Republican nominee is Doug Ducey, the race is Gallego 37 – Ducey 31 – Sinema 27.
- Sinema is in third place no matter who the Republican is.
- Sinema as a potential spoiler: Sinema pulls more votes from Gallego than the Republican.
- In the Gallego-Lake-Sinema match up, Sinema pulls 14% from Gallego and 9% from Lake.
- Sinema currently acts as a spoiler in the race, but that is not inevitable. As we educate more voters about Sinema’s Wall Street and Big Pharma ties, she loses even more of the vote.
- Sinema does not have a path to victory in any scenario that we tested.
“It’s clear from this and previous surveys that Kyrsten Sinema has no path to reelection, but she could hand the seat to a MAGA Republican if we don’t stop her,” said Sacha Haworth of Replace Sinema PAC. “Ruben Gallego is the frontrunner in a two-way race, so the question is, as the most unpopular politician in Arizona, why does Sinema think the seat belongs to her?”
“Kyrsten Sinema has abandoned our communities and the voters who elected her. It’s not surprising that she is set to lose badly if she runs again,” said Alejandra Gomez, the executive director of LUCHA. “But now we have to make sure that even more voters understand the harm she has caused, so that she can’t play spoiler.”
“Senator Sinema left the Democratic Party, but she refuses to declare her independence from Wall Street & Big Pharma,” said Alex Alvarez, the executive director of Progress Arizona. “If she stays in this race, we’re going to make sure that every single Arizonan understands that she puts Wall Street first and Arizona last.”
“Sinema has basically no path to victory, but that doesn’t mean she can’t still hurt the Democrat,” said Luis Avila, the president of Iconico and a strategist working with the Replace Sinema PAC. “Ruben Gallego is the frontrunner in this race, and the Replace Sinema PAC has to make sure that Sinema’s negatives stay so high that she can’t take more votes away from him and throw the race to Kari Lake or another MAGA Republican.”
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