Over the weekend, the Arizona Republic posed an important question: Is Kyrsten Sinema running out of time to get on the ballot?
A few key points:
- The deadline for getting on the ballot is April 8th, and Sinema needs more than 43,000 valid signatures to qualify.
- Signatures can only come from Independent voters. Signatures from Democrats or Republicans will not be valid – creating a higher hurdle for signature collectors.
- Experts say it could cost her $1 million – and more than $4 million factoring in additional expenses – to get on the ballot.
- Experts say she will need at least a month to collect the signatures, and state law requires her to file a Statement of Interest before starting the process.
- Sinema has more than $10M cash on hand, but her fundraising has slowed considerably in the most recent quarters.
- February is “make-or-break period.”
- Sinema is going it alone – the Democratic Party won’t help her get on the ballot.
Bigger picture:
- Polls show – and strategists in both parties seem to agree – that Sinema has no path to victory in a three-way race — but she can create chaos.
- Last week, the Replace Sinema PAC launched TV ads reminding voters that Sinema Sold Out, to the tune of millions of dollars from Wall Street, which she used to fund her lavish lifestyle.
- 52% of Arizona voters are less likely to support Sinema after hearing about Sinema’s luxury spending and legislative favors to Wall Street.
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ICYMI (Excerpts below)
AZ Republic: Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema hasn’t said if she is pursuing reelection. Is she running out of time?
by Ron Hanson // January 21, 2024
Sinema, I-Ariz., has until April 8 to submit the signatures of more than 40,000 registered Arizona voters to qualify for the November ballot. If that is her plan, she likely would want to submit thousands more than the minimum as insurance because some signatures likely would be ruled invalid.
The later the operation begins, the more it costs, experts in that field say.
The looming deadline comes as Sinema is about 20 percentage points behind the leading challengers for her seat in the limited available polling on the race and as her once-stellar fundraising has slowed noticeably since she left the Democratic Party 13 months ago.
[…]
“As an independent, she will have significantly more signatures to collect than if you were in either of the registered parties,” said Meghan Cox, who has led ballot-access efforts for initiatives and conducted field campaigns for the late Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and former President George W. Bush.
“You certainly can’t do it in a week, but less than two months is more than doable,” said Cox, who is the CEO of Impact Advocacy Group. “With a signature campaign, I always say any crunch can be overcome with time or money.”
It is possible but gets far pricier as time passes and as demand from other candidates across the country drains resources in Arizona, said Jon Sutton, who heads the Democratic firm Groundswell Contact, which collects signatures.
“I think by the turn of the month, these timelines start to get very, very tight and very, very, very expensive,” said Sutton, who was a field director in 2018 helping Sinema win her seat.
He estimated that overall expenses related to Sinema qualifying for the ballot could top $4 million.
[…]
Gathering signatures for Sinema’s campaign could rest heavily on the cost of paid collectors, in part because she doesn’t typically participate in large-scale political events, such as town halls, that can help pile up signatures from supporters.
And this time there is also no political party dispatching personnel to help get her on the ballot.
Sutton said Sinema faces the reality that Democratic firms like his own would not take her as a client.
“Maybe she goes to a Republican firm. Maybe she goes to someone out of state,” he said. “I would not take this work. … I don’t harbor any personal ill will, but I’m a Democrat and I run a partisan firm. From the colleagues I’ve talked to, I think most would feel the same way.”
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